Title:
Spatio-temporal Analysis of Bushfire Trends in the Itasy Region of Madagascar

Authors:
HERITAHINA Rambeloson, RASOLOMANANA Eddy Harilala, RANDRIANJA Kanto, Volahasina, Madagascar

Abstract:

The analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of bushfires in the Itasy region (6,993 km²), Madagascar, over the period 2015–2024, is based on MODISMCD64A1 and VIIRS 375 m data. The results show that 104,354 ha, or 15% of the regional area, burned at least once in ten years. The fires are concentrated in three main hotspots: north of Miarinarivo, southwest of Soavinandriana, and southeast of Arivonimamo. Land use has a strong influence on the dynamics observed: grasslands account for more than 90% of the burned area (84,700 ha), compared to 9,500 ha for cultivated land and less than 200 ha for trees, shrubs, and bare soil combined. Temporal analysis highlights strong seasonality, with a marked peak in September (3,553 ha/month) and a virtual absence of fires between January and April. The years 2018 (15,937 ha), 2016 (14,851 ha), and 2021 (13,660 ha) were the most affected, while 2022 (4,414 ha) was the least active year. The relationship between fire points (VIIRS) and burned areas is highly linear (R² = 0.76), with each detected fire corresponding to an average of 8.8 ha burned.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.51505/ijaemr.2025.1518