Title:
From Probabilistic Compliance to Event-Validated Resilience: A Governance-Centric Framework for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Critical Infrastructure Systems

Authors:
Dr. Robb Shawe, USA

Abstract:

Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) has historically relied on probabilistic (PSHA) and deterministic (DSHA/NDSHA) methodologies to inform engineering design and risk mitigation. While ongoing debate has focused on the relative merits of these approaches, both paradigms exhibit limitations when evaluated through the lens of real-world system performance. This paper advances the discourse by reframing seismic hazard assessment as a governance and validation problem rather than a purely probabilistic or deterministic modeling challenge. Building upon prior work introducing the S-E-R-M Framework, this study proposes an extended model—S-E-R-M-V (Validation)—that integrates event-based falsification, adaptive hazard recalibration, and feedback-driven resilience engineering into seismic risk governance. The framework incorporates design magnitude (Mdesign) as a structural boundary condition while embedding real-event validation across infrastructure, emergency management, and policy systems. The result is a forward-leaning paradigm that transcends the PSHA versus NDSHA dichotomy by aligning hazard modeling with operational performance, infrastructure survivability, and governance accountability.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.51505/ijaemr.2026.11320